基于多元线性回归分析的旅游供应链需求预测方法研究

在系统分析旅游行业特点及其影响因素的基础上,提出了有效的旅游需求预测方法,借助旅游供应链理论,从供应链视角出发,分析不同供应链节点对于旅游需求的影响,最后通过具体实例对旅游供应链需求预测模型进行了验证。     

猪场科学管理与效益分析

依据2014年全国大学生数学建模竞赛C题中给出的猪场管理的信息,分析了生猪养殖场的经营管理规划问题,建立了养殖场在正常运营下的盈亏(收入与成本的差)数学模型,给出了达到或超过盈亏平衡点时的条件。建立猪场中各种类型的猪(肉猪、小猪、母猪、公猪)相互依赖的差分方程组模型,查阅资料确定模型中的参数,利用MATLAB软件计算得出饱和(或平衡)状态下各种类型猪的数量。最后结合肉猪的logisit增长函数建立优化模型确定每批肉猪的最佳售卖时间点及每批肉猪的每头利润,算出这三年内的平均年利润,并给出在此策略下的母猪及肉猪存栏数曲线。从而为猪场的优化管理提供参考。     

大规模MIMO系统的预编码算法综述

相比于传统多输入多输出（MIMO）系统,大规模MIMO的天线数量大幅增加,使得系统的容量提升、误比特率下降,但也造成预编码矩阵维度升高,算法复杂度、系统成本及实现难度增大。将大规模MIMO系统主要采用的预编码技术分为线性和非线性两个部分,对两者进行了归纳和对比,并着重介绍了几种经过简化的线性预编码算法和几种比较典型的非线性预编码算法,指出因为非线性算法的复杂度很高,故未来大规模MIMO系统的预编码应当以线性算法为主。     

一种对指数增长年度用电量的组合预测方法

为有效预测呈指数增长的年度用电量,本文选用了指数函数法、GM(1,1)灰色模型和多元线性回归模型来对年度用电量进行拟合外推预测。通过运用这些方法预测北京年度用电量和对预测结果进行比较分析得到,GM(1,1)灰色模型的实际预测结果往往偏大,指数函数法预测结果可能偏小,而多元线性回归模型虽然考虑了其他因素影响但在实际预测指数增长负荷时参考意义较小。因此,最终选择合适的权重加权组合以上模型得到最终预测值,预测精度较高。     

The Fisher effect: new evidence and implications

Using monthly data in the 1980s and early 1990s, our results do not support the short-run Fisher effect since short-term interest rates are associated with negligible changes in expected inflation. However, inflation and nominal interest rates exhibit common stochastic trends in the long run. Consequently, the correlation between nominal interest rates and inflation rates increases with maturity until they move in a one-to-one relation at long horizon. This is evident by the correlation coefficients of the Johansen test for cointegration that increase with the maturity of US government securities from 2 to 5 years.     

The impact of contextual factors on the efficacy of ISO 9000 adoption

This study investigates the importance of contextual factors on the efficacy of ISO 9000 adoption. We explore the role of various contextual factors at the firm-level (i.e., technology intensity, labor productivity, and labor intensity) and industry-level (i.e., industry efficiency level, industry competitiveness, industry sales growth, and industry ISO 9000 adoption level) that potentially impact the efficacy of ISO 9000 adoption. We carry out a hierarchical linear modeling (HLM) analysis based on objective financial data from 438 U.S. manufacturing firms. The results show that firms with low technology intensity, low labor productivity and high labor intensity reap more benefit from ISO 9000 adoption. Firms in industries with low efficiency levels, high competition, high sales growth and low ISO 9000 adoption levels also obtain more benefit from the adoption. Our research provides supporting evidence for the context-dependent proposition of ISO 9000 adoption. Given the significant costs and resources involved, it is crucial for operations managers to assess to what extent ISO 9000 might benefit their performance before embarking on the implementation process.     

Banking Competition,Collateral Constraints,and Optimal Monetary Policy

We analyze optimal monetary policy in a model with two distinct financial frictions: monopolistically competitive banks that charge endogenous lending spreads, and collateral constraints. We show that welfare maximization is equivalent to stabilization of four goals: inflation, output gap, the “consumption gap” between borrowers and savers, and a “housing gap” that measures the distortion in the distribution of the collateralizable asset between both groups. Collateral constraints create a trade‐off between stabilization goals. Following both productivity and financial shocks, and relative to strict inflation targeting, the optimal policy implies sharper movements in the policy rate, aimed primarily at reducing fluctuations in asset prices and hence in borrowers' net worth. The policy trade‐offs become amplified as banking competition increases, due to the fall in lending spreads and the resulting increase in borrowers' leverage.     

Second-order Bayesian revision of a generalised linear model

It is well known that the exponential dispersion family (EDF) of univariate distributions is closed under Bayesian revision in the presence of natural conjugate priors. However, this is not the case for the general multivariate EDF. This paper derives a second-order approximation to the posterior likelihood of a naturally conjugated generalised linear model (GLM), i.e., multivariate EDF subject to a link function (Section 5.5). It is not the same as a normal approximation. It does, however, lead to second-order Bayes estimators of parameters of the posterior. The family of second-order approximations is found to be closed under Bayesian revision. This generates a recursion for repeated Bayesian revision of the GLM with the acquisition of additional data. The recursion simplifies greatly for a canonical link. The resulting structure is easily extended to a filter for estimation of the parameters of a dynamic generalised linear model (DGLM) (Section 6.2). The Kalman filter emerges as a special case. A second type of link function, related to the canonical link, and with similar properties, is identified. This is called here the companion canonical link. For a given GLM with canonical link, the companion to that link generates a companion GLM (Section 4). The recursive form of the Bayesian revision of this GLM is also obtained (Section 5.5.3). There is a perfect parallel between the development of the GLM recursion and its companion. A dictionary for translation between the two is given so that one is readily derived from the other (Table 5.1). The companion canonical link also generates a companion DGLM. A filter for this is obtained (Section 6.3). Section 1.2 provides an indication of how the theory developed here might be applied to loss reserving. A sequel paper, providing numerical illustrations of this, is planned.     

纱线线密度测试中问题的探讨

纱线线密度的传统测试方法是缕纱测长称重法。在线密度检测过程中,某些操作过程存在着导致测量结果出现误差的问题,分析这些问题,找出解决的方法,可以提高纱线线密度测试结果的精确度。     

International Travelers from Taiwan

Abstract

Taiwanese outbound travel market has been continuously growing but little in-depth research has investigated this market. This study uses discriminant analysis to examine Taiwanese outbound travelers whose travel philosophy is strongly oriented toward inclusive package vacations versus those who are not through their sociodemographics, travel characteristics, and benefits pursued variables. The results indicate that philosophy is a useful way to separate groups and that Taiwanese inclusive-package travelers tended to be female, older, with lower incomes, and less well educated. They usually seek a ‘Show and Tell,’ ‘Cost,’ and ‘Environment and Scenery’ benefits, spend more money on trips, and travel in larger groups. These findings can assist travel and tourism related organizations in developing packages and marketing strategies.